U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 13th District
Anna Paulina Luna win chance
58%
Typical margin: Luna by 1.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Anna Paulina Luna
Raised $3.2M · $1.5M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Leela J Gray
Raised $1.2M · $683K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Anna Paulina Luna. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $569K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Leela J Gray had raised $1.2MFEC filing
- Jul 29Anna Paulina Luna had raised $3.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+13.8 and D+10.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›