U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 27th District
Maria Elvira Salazar win chance
57%
Typical margin: Salazar by 1.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Maria Elvira Salazar
Raised $2.0M · $2.3M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Robin Peguero
Raised $1.1M · $138K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Maria Elvira Salazar. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $927K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Robin Peguero had raised $1.1MFEC filing
- Jul 29Maria Elvira Salazar had raised $2.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+13.6 and D+10.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›