U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Mississippi Senate
Cindy Hyde-Smith win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Hyde-Smith by 18
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Raised $5.5M · $2.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Scott Colom
Raised $2.4M · $847K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Cindy Hyde-Smith. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $575K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Scott Colom had raised $2.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Cindy Hyde-Smith had raised $5.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.4 and R+6.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›