Tracking · Updated Oct 9
World events
No question has resolved yet. We refresh market prices and our numbers every day, and grade each call the day its question resolves.
Open
10
questions
Graded
1
1 called right
Next due
Dec 10
2026
Graded
Up next
Resolves Dec 10, 2026
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Resolves Jun 30, 2027
Our number today. The one that gets graded is our last before each question resolves.
How we grade
We grade our last published number before a question resolved. A call counts as right if we gave the outcome that happened better than even odds.
Each call also gets a Brier score: the squared gap between our number and the result (1 for Yes, 0 for No). 0 is perfect. Saying 50% every time scores 0.25. Misses stay on the page.
Why there's no past test
Questions like these happen once, so there's no history of identical events to test against. The record here is built forward, one resolved question at a time.
Sources
Each question settles by the official source it names, such as the BEA, the Federal Reserve or MLB.
Model events-v1.1.0, updated Oct 9, 2026.
Our method ›