Tech · Resolves Dec 31
Will OpenAI launch a social network in 2026?
Our chance
11%
About 1 in 9
Market 12%
Yes 11%No 89%
Why
- The market says 12%, but its order book is thin, so it gets less say than usual
- Things like this happen about 10% of the time, by our estimate, which pulls us down 1 point
- The market swung between 6% and 18% over the past month, so we allow a wide range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 4% and 29%.
Over time
Since Jun 14, the market has gone from 23% to 12%.
Oct 9Market 12%Our number 11%
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How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (12%) and blend in a base rate of 10% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 65% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 10%: rumored product launches ship far less often than rumors suggest; 10% is the forecaster's judgment call.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$82K traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9