Tech · Resolves Dec 31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
Our chance
40%
About 2 in 5
Market 43%
Yes 40%No 60%
Why
- The market says 43%, and it's well traded, so it gets most of the say
- Things like this happen about 30% of the time, by our estimate, which pulls us down 3 points
- The market swung between 8% and 43% over the past month, so we allow a wide range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 9% and 81%.
Over time
Since Jun 14, the market has gone from 15% to 43%.
Oct 9Market 43%Our number 40%
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How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (43%) and blend in a base rate of 30% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 78% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 30%: same leaderboard churn as Anthropic, marginally lower release cadence; 30% is the forecaster's judgment call.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$255K traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9