Law · Resolves Jun 30, 2027
Will Justice Alito announce his retirement by June 2027?
Our chance
36%
About 1 in 3
Market 39%
Yes 36%No 64%
Why
- The market says 39%, and it's well traded, so it gets most of the say
- Things like this happen about 25% of the time, by our estimate, which pulls us down 3 points
- With about 9 months to go there is time for news, so we allow a wide range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 19% and 57%.
Over time
Since Jul 1, the market has gone from 63% to 39%.
Oct 9Market 39%Our number 36%
More questions
How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (39%) and blend in a base rate of 25% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 78% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 25%: strategic retirements under a same-party president are common but never scheduled; 25% is the forecaster's judgment call.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$101K traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9