Politics · Resolves Dec 31
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Our chance
19%
About 1 in 5
Market 20%
Yes 19%No 81%
Why
- The market says 20%, but its order book is thin, so it gets less say than usual
- Things like this happen about 15% of the time, by our estimate, which pulls us down 1 point
- The market swung between 17% and 28% over the past month, so we allow a wide range
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the chance lands between 10% and 32%.
Over time
Since Jun 14, the market has gone from 25% to 20%.
Oct 9Market 20%Our number 19%
More in Politics
How we got this number
- We start from the Polymarket price (20%) and blend in a base rate of 15% on the log-odds scale. Here the market carries 76% of the weight: a deep, fresh market earns more, a thin or stale one less.
- Why 15%: cabinet-level departures in a midterm year are uncommon but not rare; 15% is the forecaster's judgment call.
- Then we run 40,000 simulations. Their spread comes from how far the market moved over the past 30 days, the time left, and a small shock shared by every question (news that moves many markets at once). Our number is the middle of the runs (the median); the range is the middle 90%.
- One-off questions can't be backtested, so the ranges are wide on purpose. We grade every question when it resolves.
$130K traded on Polymarket ↗How our calls have done ›
Model events-v1.1.0 · Updated Oct 9