NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Rockets beat the Mavericks?
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Rockets win chance
56%
Typical margin: Rockets by 2.5
Market 56%
Rockets 56%Mavericks 44%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Rockets at 56%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Rockets by 8.8 points on a neutral floor
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Neutral site±050%No home court: this one is played on a neutral floor.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberRockets 56%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Rockets by 31 and Mavericks by 25.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Rockets win chance
56%
Rockets 56%Mavericks 44%
- Top scorerRockets
- Top scorerMavericks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
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Our number over time
Down 15 from 71% to 56%
Oct 3Oct 8
Injury report
Mavericks
- Santi AldamaDay-To-Day
- Dereck Lively IIDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over ten seasons the market was the most accurate single input, and that mix was as accurate as anything we tested.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.