NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Lakers beat the Kings?
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Lakers win chance
75%
Typical margin: Lakers by 6.5
Kings 25%Lakers 75%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Lakers by 13 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumSee every step from 50% to our Lakers 75%.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Kings by 21 and Lakers by 35.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Lakers win chance
66%
Kings 34%Lakers 66%
- Top scorerKings
- Top scorerLakers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
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Our number over time
Down 23 from 89% to 66%
Oct 3Oct 8
Injury report
Kings
- Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
- Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
- Malik MonkDay-To-Day
- Ben SimmonsDay-To-Day
Lakers
- Dalton KnechtDay-To-Day
- Walker KesslerDay-To-Day
- Collin SextonDay-To-Day
- Arthur KalumaDay-To-Day
- Ziaire WilliamsDay-To-Day
- Cameron CarrDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.