NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Heat beat the Timberwolves?
at
Heat win chance
51%
Typical margin: Heat by 0.5
Market 51%
Timberwolves 49%Heat 51%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Heat at 51%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Heat by 2.6 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Heat by 2.7 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+151%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Heat.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHeat 51%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Timberwolves by 27 and Heat by 29.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Heat win chance
51%
Timberwolves 49%Heat 51%
- Top scorerTimberwolves
- Top scorerHeat
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
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Injury report
Timberwolves
- Donte DiVincenzoOut
Heat
- Keshad JohnsonOut
- Pelle LarssonDay-To-Day
- Dru SmithDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over ten seasons the market was the most accurate single input, and that mix was as accurate as anything we tested.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.