NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Hawks beat the Thunder?
at
Hawks win chance
60%
Typical margin: Hawks by 4.5
Market 63%
Thunder 40%Hawks 60%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Hawks at 63%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Thunder by 1.9 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Thunder by 1.0 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+151%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Hawks.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHawks 60%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Thunder by 24 and Hawks by 32.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Hawks win chance
60%
Thunder 40%Hawks 60%
- Top scorerThunder
- Top scorerHawks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 15 from 45% to 60%
Oct 5Oct 8
Injury report
Thunder
- Thomas SorberDay-To-Day
- Chet HolmgrenDay-To-Day
- Nikola TopicDay-To-Day
- Isaiah HartensteinDay-To-Day
- Jaylin WilliamsDay-To-Day
Hawks
- Henri VeesaarOut
- Keshon GilbertDay-To-Day
- Luguentz DortDay-To-Day
- Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day
- Mouhamed GueyeDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over ten seasons the market was the most accurate single input, and that mix was as accurate as anything we tested.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.