NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Lakers beat the Warriors?
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Lakers win chance
56%
Typical margin: Lakers by 2.5
Market 55%
Warriors 44%Lakers 56%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Lakers at 55%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Lakers by 5.0 points on a neutral floor
- Injuries tilt it toward the Lakers by 7.1 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Neutral site±050%No home court: this one is played on a neutral floor.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberLakers 56%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Warriors by 25 and Lakers by 31.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Lakers win chance
56%
Warriors 44%Lakers 56%
- Top scorerWarriors
- Top scorerLakers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 5 from 61% to 56%
Oct 5Oct 8
Injury report
Warriors
- Jimmy Butler IIIOut
- Moses MoodyOut
- Gui SantosDay-To-Day
- Brandin PodziemskiDay-To-Day
- Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
- Georges NiangDay-To-Day
- De'Anthony MeltonDay-To-Day
- Yaxel LendeborgDay-To-Day
Lakers
- Dalton KnechtDay-To-Day
- Walker KesslerDay-To-Day
- Collin SextonDay-To-Day
- Arthur KalumaDay-To-Day
- Ziaire WilliamsDay-To-Day
- Cameron CarrDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over ten seasons the market was the most accurate single input, and that mix was as accurate as anything we tested.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.