Will the Thunder beat the Pacers?

Thunder win chance

In short

• The market (Polymarket) has the Thunder at 60%, and it carries 85% of our number
• Our ratings favor the Thunder by 18 points, home court included
• Injuries tilt it toward the Thunder by 2.3 points

Every step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.

1. An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
2. Home court+151%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Thunder.
3. Team strength+657%How the two teams compare in our ratings.
4. Injuries−354%Who is out, and what that is worth.
5. Preseason game+256%How much starters play in a preseason game.
6. Rest+460%Rest days and back-to-backs.
7. The market−258%What the betting market's price adds.
8. See how far every step moved our number.See every step
9. Our numberThunder 61%

Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.

The range

In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Pacers by 23 and Thunder by 33.

Switch a player off and we rerun the game without him.

Our number over time