NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Magic beat the Heat?
at
Magic win chance
55%
Typical margin: Magic by 2
Heat 45%Magic 55%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Magic by 4.3 points, home court included
- Injuries roughly cancel out
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+959%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Magic.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberMagic 55%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Heat by 26 and Magic by 30.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Magic win chance
55%
Heat 45%Magic 55%
- Top scorerHeat
- Top scorerMagic
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 3 from 52% to 55%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Heat
- Keshad JohnsonOut
- Kylor KelleyDay-To-Day
- Pelle LarssonDay-To-Day
- Dru SmithDay-To-Day
Magic
- Izaiyah NelsonOut
- Noah PendaDay-To-Day
- Anthony BlackDay-To-Day
- Jalen SuggsDay-To-Day
- Jonathan IsaacDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.