NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Thunder beat the Rockets?
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Thunder win chance
51%
Typical margin: Thunder by 0.5
Market 52%
Thunder 51%Rockets 49%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Thunder at 52%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Thunder by 0.5 points, home court included
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−149%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Rockets.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberThunder 51%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Thunder by 29 and Rockets by 27.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Thunder win chance
51%
Thunder 51%Rockets 49%
- Top scorerThunder
- Top scorerRockets
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 1 from 52% to 51%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Thunder
- Thomas SorberDay-To-Day
- Chet HolmgrenDay-To-Day
- Nikola TopicDay-To-Day
- Isaiah HartensteinDay-To-Day
- Jaylin WilliamsDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over ten seasons the market was the most accurate single input, and that mix was as accurate as anything we tested.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.