NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Hawks beat the Mavericks?
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Hawks win chance
53%
Typical margin: Hawks by 1
Hawks 53%Mavericks 47%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Hawks by 3.5 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Mavericks by 1.0 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1040%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Mavericks.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHawks 53%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Hawks by 29 and Mavericks by 27.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Hawks win chance
53%
Hawks 53%Mavericks 47%
- Top scorerHawks
- Top scorerMavericks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
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Our number over time
Up 1 from 52% to 53%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Hawks
- Henri VeesaarOut
- Keshon GilbertDay-To-Day
- Luguentz DortDay-To-Day
- Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day
- Mouhamed GueyeDay-To-Day
Mavericks
- Santi AldamaDay-To-Day
- Dereck Lively IIDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.