NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Hornets beat the Grizzlies?
at
Hornets win chance
57%
Typical margin: Hornets by 3
Hornets 57%Grizzlies 43%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Hornets by 6.2 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−941%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Grizzlies.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHornets 57%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Hornets by 31 and Grizzlies by 25.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Hornets win chance
57%
Hornets 57%Grizzlies 43%
- Top scorerHornets
- Top scorerGrizzlies
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 4 from 61% to 57%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Hornets
- Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
- Christian AndersonDay-To-Day
- Kylan BoswellDay-To-Day
- Coby WhiteDay-To-Day
- Kon KnueppelDay-To-Day
- Grant WilliamsDay-To-Day
Grizzlies
- Micah PeavyDay-To-Day
- Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.