NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Bulls beat the Timberwolves?
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Bulls win chance
50%
Typical margin: Bulls by 0.5
Timberwolves 50%Bulls 50%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Timberwolves by 3.3 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Bulls by 3.8 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+959%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Bulls.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberBulls 50%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Timberwolves by 28 and Bulls by 28.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Bulls win chance
51%
Timberwolves 49%Bulls 51%
- Top scorerTimberwolves
- Top scorerBulls
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 2 from 48% to 50%
Oct 5Oct 8
Injury report
Timberwolves
- Donte DiVincenzoOut
Bulls
- Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
- Jaylin SellersDay-To-Day
- Tre JonesDay-To-Day
- Nic ClaxtonDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.