NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Trail Blazers beat the Warriors?
at
Trail Blazers win chance
52%
Typical margin: Trail Blazers by 1
Trail Blazers 52%Warriors 48%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Warriors by 1.7 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Trail Blazers by 3.4 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−842%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Warriors.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberTrail Blazers 52%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Trail Blazers by 29 and Warriors by 27.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Trail Blazers win chance
52%
Trail Blazers 52%Warriors 48%
- Top scorerTrail Blazers
- Top scorerWarriors
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 1 from 51% to 52%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Trail Blazers
- Shaedon SharpeOut
Warriors
- Jimmy Butler IIIOut
- Moses MoodyOut
- Gui SantosDay-To-Day
- Brandin PodziemskiDay-To-Day
- Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
- Georges NiangDay-To-Day
- De'Anthony MeltonDay-To-Day
- Yaxel LendeborgDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.