NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Spurs beat the Kings?
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Spurs win chance
69%
Typical margin: Spurs by 8.5
Kings 31%Spurs 69%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Spurs by 18 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Kings by 1.0 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+959%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Spurs.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberSpurs 69%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Kings by 20 and Spurs by 36.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Spurs win chance
69%
Kings 31%Spurs 69%
- Top scorerKings
- Top scorerSpurs
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
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Our number over time
Up 6 from 63% to 69%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Kings
- Leaky BlackDay-To-Day
- Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
- Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
- Malik MonkDay-To-Day
- Ben SimmonsDay-To-Day
Spurs
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
- Malik WilliamsDay-To-Day
- De'Aaron FoxDay-To-Day
- Maliq BrownDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.