NBA · Preseason ·
Will the Suns beat the Jazz?
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Suns win chance
65%
Typical margin: Suns by 6.5
Jazz 35%Suns 65%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Suns by 13 points, home court included
- Injuries roughly cancel out
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+959%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Suns.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberSuns 65%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Jazz by 21 and Suns by 34.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Suns win chance
65%
Jazz 35%Suns 65%
- Top scorerJazz
- Top scorerSuns
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster, halved in preseason when starters sit.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 7 from 58% to 65%
Oct 5Oct 9
Injury report
Jazz
- Jusuf NurkicOut
- Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
- Brice SensabaughDay-To-Day
- Kyle FilipowskiDay-To-Day
Suns
- Mark WilliamsOut
- Miles BridgesDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Preseason game: starters play about half the minutes, so we halve the expected margin and widen the range. It's graded like any other game and marked preseason.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.