NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Raptors beat the Bulls?
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Raptors win chance
78%
Typical margin: Raptors by 10.5
Bulls 22%Raptors 78%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Raptors by 11 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Raptors.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberRaptors 78%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Bulls by 12 and Raptors by 33.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Raptors win chance
78%
Bulls 22%Raptors 78%
- Top scorerBulls
- Top scorerRaptors
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 5 from 83% to 78%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Bulls
- Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
- Jaylin SellersDay-To-Day
- Tre JonesDay-To-Day
- Nic ClaxtonDay-To-Day
Raptors
- Trayce Jackson-DavisDay-To-Day
- Jamison BattleDay-To-Day
- Allen GravesDay-To-Day
- Kawhi LeonardDay-To-Day
- Nate BittleDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.