NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Cavaliers beat the 76ers?
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Cavaliers win chance
55%
Typical margin: Cavaliers by 1.5
Cavaliers 55%76ers 45%
In short
- Injuries tilt it toward the Cavaliers by 1.1 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1238%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the 76ers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberCavaliers 55%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Cavaliers by 24 and 76ers by 21.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Cavaliers win chance
55%
Cavaliers 55%76ers 45%
- Top scorerCavaliers
- Top scorer76ers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Holding at 55%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Cavaliers
- Khalifa DiopDay-To-Day
- Nae'Qwan TomlinDay-To-Day
- James HardenDay-To-Day
76ers
- Ariel HukportiOut
- Dominick BarlowDay-To-Day
- Anfernee SimonsDay-To-Day
- Adem BonaDay-To-Day
- Tacko FallDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.