NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Trail Blazers beat the Suns?
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Trail Blazers win chance
56%
Typical margin: Trail Blazers by 2
Suns 44%Trail Blazers 56%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Trail Blazers by 2.8 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Suns by 0.7 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Trail Blazers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberTrail Blazers 56%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Suns by 20 and Trail Blazers by 25.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Trail Blazers win chance
56%
Suns 44%Trail Blazers 56%
- Top scorerSuns
- Top scorerTrail Blazers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 4 from 52% to 56%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Suns
- Mark WilliamsOut
- Miles BridgesDay-To-Day
Trail Blazers
- Shaedon SharpeOut
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.