NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Pacers beat the Mavericks?
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Pacers win chance
52%
Typical margin: Pacers by 1
Mavericks 48%Pacers 52%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Pacers by 3.2 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Mavericks by 2.3 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Pacers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberPacers 52%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Mavericks by 22 and Pacers by 23.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Pacers win chance
52%
Mavericks 48%Pacers 52%
- Top scorerMavericks
- Top scorerPacers
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 2 from 50% to 52%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Mavericks
- Santi AldamaDay-To-Day
- Dereck Lively IIDay-To-Day
Pacers
- Johnny FurphyOut
- Larry Nance Jr.Day-To-Day
- T.J. McConnellDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.