NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Celtics beat the Knicks?
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Celtics win chance
66%
Typical margin: Celtics by 6
Knicks 34%Celtics 66%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Celtics by 5.8 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Celtics.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberCeltics 66%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Knicks by 17 and Celtics by 28.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Celtics win chance
66%
Knicks 34%Celtics 66%
- Top scorerKnicks
- Top scorerCeltics
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 2 from 68% to 66%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Knicks
- Kevin McCullar Jr.Day-To-Day
- Tony BradleyDay-To-Day
- Ochai AgbajiDay-To-Day
- Drew EubanksDay-To-Day
Celtics
- Sam HauserDay-To-Day
- Ron Harper Jr.Day-To-Day
- Payton PritchardDay-To-Day
- Mitchell RobinsonDay-To-Day
- Neemias QuetaDay-To-Day
- Paul GeorgeDay-To-Day
- Jayson TatumDay-To-Day
- Derrick WhiteDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.