NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Hornets beat the Heat?
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Hornets win chance
72%
Typical margin: Hornets by 8
Heat 28%Hornets 72%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Hornets by 6.8 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Hornets by 1.1 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Hornets.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHornets 72%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Heat by 15 and Hornets by 30.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Hornets win chance
72%
Heat 28%Hornets 72%
- Top scorerHeat
- Top scorerHornets
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 4 from 68% to 72%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Heat
- Keshad JohnsonOut
- Kylor KelleyDay-To-Day
- Pelle LarssonDay-To-Day
- Dru SmithDay-To-Day
Hornets
- Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
- Christian AndersonDay-To-Day
- Kylan BoswellDay-To-Day
- Coby WhiteDay-To-Day
- Kon KnueppelDay-To-Day
- Grant WilliamsDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.