NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Kings beat the Trail Blazers?
at
Kings win chance
52%
Typical margin: Kings by 1
Trail Blazers 48%Kings 52%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Trail Blazers by 2.8 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Kings by 3.7 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1060%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Kings.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberKings 52%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Trail Blazers by 22 and Kings by 23.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Kings win chance
52%
Trail Blazers 48%Kings 52%
- Top scorerTrail Blazers
- Top scorerKings
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 5 from 47% to 52%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Trail Blazers
- Shaedon SharpeOut
Kings
- Leaky BlackDay-To-Day
- Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
- Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
- Malik MonkDay-To-Day
- Ben SimmonsDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.