NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Thunder beat the Clippers?
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Thunder win chance
93%
Typical margin: Thunder by 19.5
Clippers 7%Thunder 93%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Thunder by 11 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Thunder by 9.0 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Thunder.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberThunder 93%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Clippers by 3 and Thunder by 42.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Thunder win chance
93%
Clippers 7%Thunder 93%
- Top scorerClippers
- Top scorerThunder
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 14 from 79% to 93%
Oct 3Oct 9
Injury report
Clippers
- Max StrusOut
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
- Brandon IngramOut
- Jordan MillerOut
- Kobe SandersDay-To-Day
- Bradley BealDay-To-Day
Thunder
- Thomas SorberDay-To-Day
- Chet HolmgrenDay-To-Day
- Nikola TopicDay-To-Day
- Isaiah HartensteinDay-To-Day
- Jaylin WilliamsDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.