NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Heat beat the Mavericks?
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Heat win chance
74%
Typical margin: Heat by 8.5
Mavericks 26%Heat 74%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Heat by 9.8 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Mavericks by 1.1 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1161%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Heat.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHeat 74%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Mavericks by 14 and Heat by 31.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Heat win chance
74%
Mavericks 26%Heat 74%
- Top scorerMavericks
- Top scorerHeat
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 10 from 64% to 74%
Oct 4Oct 9
Injury report
Mavericks
- Santi AldamaDay-To-Day
- Dereck Lively IIDay-To-Day
Heat
- Keshad JohnsonOut
- Kylor KelleyDay-To-Day
- Pelle LarssonDay-To-Day
- Dru SmithDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.