Will the 76ers beat the Pacers?

76ers win chance

In short

• Our ratings favor the 76ers by 1.8 points, home court included
• Injuries tilt it toward the 76ers by 1.2 points

Every step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.

1. An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
2. Home court−1139%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Pacers.
3. Team strength+645%How the two teams compare in our ratings.
4. The market−342%What the betting market's price adds.
5. Injuries+244%Who is out, and what that is worth.
6. Rest+448%Rest days and back-to-backs.
7. See how far every step moved our number.See every step
8. Our number76ers 60%

Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.

The range

In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between 76ers by 26 and Pacers by 19.

Switch a player off and we rerun the game without him.