NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Hawks beat the Cavaliers?
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Hawks win chance
53%
Typical margin: Hawks by 1
Cavaliers 47%Hawks 53%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Hawks by 2.1 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Cavaliers by 1.0 points
- Close to a coin flip on our numbers
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+1060%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Hawks.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHawks 53%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Cavaliers by 21 and Hawks by 23.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Hawks win chance
53%
Cavaliers 47%Hawks 53%
- Top scorerCavaliers
- Top scorerHawks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Holding at 53%
Oct 7Oct 9
Injury report
Cavaliers
- Khalifa DiopDay-To-Day
- Nae'Qwan TomlinDay-To-Day
- James HardenDay-To-Day
Hawks
- Henri VeesaarOut
- Keshon GilbertDay-To-Day
- Luguentz DortDay-To-Day
- Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day
- Mouhamed GueyeDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.