NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Spurs beat the Jazz?
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Spurs win chance
80%
Typical margin: Spurs by 11.5
Spurs 80%Jazz 20%
In short
- Our ratings favor the Spurs by 11 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Spurs by 2.3 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−1139%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Jazz.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberSpurs 80%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Spurs by 34 and Jazz by 11.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Spurs win chance
80%
Spurs 80%Jazz 20%
- Top scorerSpurs
- Top scorerJazz
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Injury report
Spurs
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
- Malik WilliamsDay-To-Day
- De'Aaron FoxDay-To-Day
- Maliq BrownDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisDay-To-Day
Jazz
- Jusuf NurkicOut
- Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
- Brice SensabaughDay-To-Day
- Kyle FilipowskiDay-To-Day
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.