NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Thunder beat the Wizards?
Thunder win chance
77%
Typical margin: Thunder by 10
Market 78%What traders on Data: Polymarket are paying, read as a chance.
Wizards 23%Thunder 77%
Updated Nov 3, 4:55 AM ET
Make your pick
Pick up to 10 games. We show the chance they all come in.
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Thunder at 78%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Thunder by 20 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Wizards by 2.1 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+151%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Thunder.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberThunder 77%
The full matchup
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Thunder win chance
77%
Wizards 23%Thunder 77%
- Top scorerWizards
- Top scorerThunder
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
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Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over ten seasons the market was the most accurate single input, and that mix was as accurate as anything we tested.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Nov 3.
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