NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Celtics beat the Bucks?
Celtics win chance
76%
Typical margin: Celtics by 9.5
Market 77%What traders on Data: Polymarket are paying, read as a chance.
Celtics 76%Bucks 24%
Updated Nov 3, 4:55 AM ET
Make your pick
Pick up to 10 games. We show the chance they all come in.
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Celtics at 77%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Celtics by 9.3 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Bucks by 2.3 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−149%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Bucks.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberCeltics 76%
The full matchup
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Celtics win chance
76%
Celtics 76%Bucks 24%
- Top scorerCeltics
- Top scorerBucks
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium: $5.99 a month, 7 days free. Coming soon.
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over ten seasons the market was the most accurate single input, and that mix was as accurate as anything we tested.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Nov 3.
Follow a team and its games lead your sports pages.
at