NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Celtics beat the Nuggets?
Celtics win chance
57%
Typical margin: Celtics by 2.5
Celtics 57%Nuggets 43%
Updated Nov 3, 4:55 AM ET
Make your pick
Pick up to 10 games. We show the chance they all come in.
In short
- Our ratings favor the Nuggets by 2.0 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Celtics by 2.4 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−644%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Nuggets.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberCeltics 57%
The full matchup
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Celtics win chance
57%
Celtics 57%Nuggets 43%
- Top scorerCeltics
- Top scorerNuggets
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
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Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Nov 3.
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