NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Heat beat the Bucks?
Heat win chance
70%
Typical margin: Heat by 7.5
Bucks 30%Heat 70%
Updated Nov 3, 4:55 AM ET
Make your pick
Pick up to 10 games. We show the chance they all come in.
In short
- Our ratings favor the Heat by 10 points, home court included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court+656%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Heat.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberHeat 70%
The full matchup
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Heat win chance
70%
Bucks 30%Heat 70%
- Top scorerBucks
- Top scorerHeat
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
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Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Nov 3.
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