NBA · Regular season ·
Will the Pistons beat the Magic?
Pistons win chance
74%
Typical margin: Pistons by 9
Pistons 74%Magic 26%
Updated Nov 4, 4:56 AM ET
Make your pick
Pick up to 10 games. We show the chance they all come in.
In short
- Our ratings favor the Pistons by 2.8 points, home court included
- Injuries tilt it toward the Pistons by 2.8 points
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home court−644%Playing at home is worth about 3.9 points to the Magic.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberPistons 74%
The full matchup
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Pistons win chance
74%
Pistons 74%Magic 26%
- Top scorerPistons
- Top scorerMagic
In our model a star out costs his team 4.5 points, up to 9 for a whole roster.
A preview of Premium: $5.99 a month, 7 days free. Coming soon.
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (Elo, fitted walk-forward) and the ESPN injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- Model v1.2.0, updated Nov 4.
Follow a team and its games lead your sports pages.
at