NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Jaguars beat the Eagles?
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Jaguars win chance
74%
Typical margin: Jaguars by 9
Market 76%
Eagles 26%Jaguars 74%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Jaguars at 76%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Jaguars by 5.5 points, home field included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Jaguars.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberJaguars 74%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Eagles by 13 and Jaguars by 31.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Jaguars win chance
74%
Eagles 26%Jaguars 74%
- Starting QBQB · Eagles
- Starting QBQB · Jaguars
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 2 from 72% to 74%
Oct 6Oct 8
Jaguars -7.5Our chance they cover the spread54%
Jaguars win by 10+ pointsOur chance47%
Jaguars win by 14+ pointsOur chance35%
Injury report
Eagles
- Tank Bigsby · RBInjured Reserve
- Dallas Goedert · TEQuestionable
- Dontayvion Wicks · WRQuestionable
- DeVonta Smith · WRQuestionable
- Saquon Barkley · RBQuestionable
- Hollywood Brown · WRQuestionable
- Quinyon Mitchell · CBQuestionable
- Fred Johnson · OTQuestionable
Jaguars
- Christian Braswell · CBInjured Reserve
- Caleb Ransaw · SInjured Reserve
- Montaric Brown · CBQuestionable
- Cole Van Lanen · OTQuestionable
- Jarrian Jones · CBQuestionable
- Josh Hines-Allen · DEQuestionable
- Anton Harrison · OTQuestionable
- Jourdan Lewis · CBQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.