NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Texans beat the Titans?
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Texans win chance
77%
Typical margin: Texans by 9.5
Market 78%
Texans 77%Titans 23%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Texans at 78%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Texans by 6.5 points, home field included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field−149%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Titans.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberTexans 77%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Texans by 32 and Titans by 12.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Texans win chance
77%
Texans 77%Titans 23%
- Starting QBQB · Texans
- Starting QBQB · Titans
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
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Our number over time
Up 4 from 73% to 77%
Oct 6Oct 8
Texans -6.5Our chance they cover the spread60%
Texans win by 10+ pointsOur chance49%
Texans win by 14+ pointsOur chance37%
Injury report
Texans
- Tank Dell · WRInjured Reserve
- Braden Smith · OTInjured Reserve
- Jaylin Smith · CBInjured Reserve
- Kayden McDonald · DTInjured Reserve
- Aireontae Ersery · OTQuestionable
- Blake Fisher · OTQuestionable
- Will Anderson Jr. · DEQuestionable
- Ed Ingram · GQuestionable
Titans
- Joshua Williams · CBInjured Reserve
- David Martin-Robinson · TEQuestionable
- Carnell Tate · WRQuestionable
- Gunnar Helm · TEQuestionable
- Marcus Harris · CBQuestionable
- John Franklin-Myers · DEQuestionable
- Amani Hooker · SQuestionable
- Jeffery Simmons · DTQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.