NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Steelers beat the Colts?
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Steelers win chance
57%
Typical margin: Steelers by 2.5
Market 57%
Colts 43%Steelers 57%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Steelers at 57%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Steelers by 3.3 points, home field included
- Steelers without Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Steelers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberSteelers 57%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Colts by 19 and Steelers by 24.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Steelers win chance
57%
Colts 43%Steelers 57%
- Starting QBQB · Colts
- Starting QBQB · Steelers
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Steelers -3.5Our chance they cover the spread47%
Steelers win by 10+ pointsOur chance28%
Steelers win by 14+ pointsOur chance19%
Injury report
Colts
- Will Mallory · TEInjured Reserve
- Alec Pierce · WRInjured Reserve
- Arden Key · DEOut
- Ashton Dulin · WRQuestionable
- Keenan Allen · WRQuestionable
- Charvarius Ward · CBQuestionable
- Tanor Bortolini · CQuestionable
- Jaylon Carlies · LBQuestionable
Steelers
- Michael Pittman Jr. · WROut
- DeShon Elliott · SInjured Reserve
- Derrick Harmon · DTInjured Reserve
- Jamel Dean · CBDoubtful
- Rico Dowdle · RBQuestionable
- Jalen Ramsey · CBQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.