Will the Patriots beat the Raiders?

Patriots win chance

In short

• The market (Polymarket) has the Patriots at 62%, and it carries 85% of our number
• Our ratings favor the Patriots by 7.2 points, home field included

Every step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.

1. An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
2. Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Patriots.
3. Team strength+657%How the two teams compare in our ratings.
4. The market−354%What the betting market's price adds.
5. Starting quarterbacks+256%Who starts at quarterback for each side.
6. See how far every step moved our number.See every step
7. Our numberPatriots 63%

Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.

The range

In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Raiders by 17 and Patriots by 26.

Switch a player off and we rerun the game without him.

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