NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Commanders beat the Giants?
at
Commanders win chance
61%
Typical margin: Commanders by 3.5
Market 63%
Giants 39%Commanders 61%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Commanders at 63%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Commanders without Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE)
- Giants without Chauncey Golston (DE)
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Commanders.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberCommanders 61%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Giants by 18 and Commanders by 26.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Commanders win chance
61%
Giants 39%Commanders 61%
- Starting QBQB · Giants
- Starting QBQB · Commanders
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Up 1 from 60% to 61%
Oct 6Oct 8
Commanders -3.5Our chance they cover the spread51%
Commanders win by 10+ pointsOur chance32%
Commanders win by 14+ pointsOur chance22%
Injury report
Giants
- Braxton Berrios · WRInjured Reserve
- Chauncey Golston · DEOut
- Isaiah Likely · TEQuestionable
- Cam Skattebo · RBQuestionable
- Malik Nabers · WRQuestionable
- Chris Manhertz · TEQuestionable
- Andrew Thomas · OTQuestionable
- Jason Pinnock · SQuestionable
Commanders
- Jeremy McNichols · RBInjured Reserve
- Jaylin Lane · WRInjured Reserve
- Deatrich Wise Jr. · DEOut
- Trey Amos · CBInjured Reserve
- Marcus Mariota · QBDoubtful
- Chig Okonkwo · TEQuestionable
- Rachaad White · RBQuestionable
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt · RBQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.