NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Broncos beat the Chargers?
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Broncos win chance
63%
Typical margin: Broncos by 4.5
Market 63%
Broncos 63%Chargers 37%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Broncos at 63%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Broncos by 4.2 points, home field included
- Chargers without Rashawn Slater (OT)
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field−149%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Chargers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberBroncos 63%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Broncos by 26 and Chargers by 18.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Broncos win chance
63%
Broncos 63%Chargers 37%
- Starting QBQB · Broncos
- Starting QBQB · Chargers
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Broncos -3.5Our chance they cover the spread53%
Broncos win by 10+ pointsOur chance34%
Broncos win by 14+ pointsOur chance24%
Injury report
Broncos
- Jonah Coleman · RBInjured Reserve
- Pat Bryant · WRDoubtful
- Pat Surtain II · CBDoubtful
- Riley Moss · CBQuestionable
Chargers
- Rashawn Slater · OTOut
- Branson Taylor · GInjured Reserve
- Scott Matlock · FBInjured Reserve
- Trey Lance · QBQuestionable
- Brenen Thompson · WRQuestionable
- Charlie Kolar · TEQuestionable
- Quentin Johnston · WRQuestionable
- Ladd McConkey · WRQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.