NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Bears beat the Packers?
at
Bears win chance
54%
Typical margin: Bears by 1
Market 53%
Bears 54%Packers 46%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Bears at 53%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Bears by 1.6 points, home field included
- Packers without Micah Parsons (DE)
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field−149%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Packers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberBears 54%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Bears by 23 and Packers by 21.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Bears win chance
54%
Bears 54%Packers 46%
- Starting QBQB · Bears
- Starting QBQB · Packers
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
A preview of Premium, which we're building now.
Our number over time
Down 6 from 60% to 54%
Oct 6Oct 8
Bears -2.5Our chance they cover the spread46%
Bears win by 10+ pointsOur chance25%
Bears win by 14+ pointsOur chance17%
Injury report
Bears
- Caleb Williams · QBOut
- Kyler Gordon · CBOut
- Braxton Jones · OTInjured Reserve
- Anthony Johnson Jr. · SInjured Reserve
- Kyle Monangai · RBQuestionable
- D'Andre Swift · RBQuestionable
- Darnell Wright · OTQuestionable
- Joe Thuney · GQuestionable
Packers
- Savion Williams · WRInjured Reserve
- Micah Parsons · DEOut
- Edgerrin Cooper · LBInjured Reserve
- Warren Brinson · DTInjured Reserve
- Chris Brooks · RBQuestionable
- Anthony Belton · OTQuestionable
- Lukas Van Ness · DEQuestionable
- Jager Burton · CQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.