NFL · Week 5 ·
Will the Lions beat the Cardinals?
at
Lions win chance
69%
Typical margin: Lions by 6.5
Market 70%
Lions 69%Cardinals 31%
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the Lions at 70%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the Lions by 4.1 points, home field included
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field−149%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the Cardinals.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our numberLions 69%
Each step is that piece's share of the model, so the steps add up to the number we published.
The range
In 9 of 10 simulations, the result lands between Lions by 28 and Cardinals by 15.
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
Lions win chance
69%
Lions 69%Cardinals 31%
- Starting QBQB · Lions
- Starting QBQB · Cardinals
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
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Our number over time
Up 3 from 66% to 69%
Oct 6Oct 8
Lions -4.5Our chance they cover the spread56%
Lions win by 10+ pointsOur chance40%
Lions win by 14+ pointsOur chance29%
Injury report
Lions
- Cade Mays · CInjured Reserve
- Brian Branch · SOut
- Thomas Harper · SInjured Reserve
- Rock Ya-Sin · CBDoubtful
- Tyleik Williams · DTQuestionable
- DJ Wonnum · LBQuestionable
- Ben Bartch · GQuestionable
Cardinals
- Hunter Long · TEInjured Reserve
- Paris Johnson Jr. · OTInjured Reserve
- Isaiah Adams · GOut
- Jeremiyah Love · RBQuestionable
- Walter Nolen III · DTQuestionable
- Karson Sharar · LBQuestionable
- Dadrion Taylor-Demerson · SQuestionable
- Andrew Wingard · SQuestionable
Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Oct 9.