NFL · Week 9 ·
Will the 49ers beat the Raiders?
49ers win chance
80%
Typical margin: 49ers by 11
Market 80%What traders on Polymarket are paying, read as a chance.
Raiders 20%49ers 80%
Updated Nov 3, 4:57 AM ET
Make your pick
Pick up to 10 games. We show the chance they all come in.
In short
- The market (Polymarket) has the 49ers at 80%, and it carries 85% of our number
- Our ratings favor the 49ers by 10 points, home field included
- 49ers without Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
Why this number
PremiumEvery step from a coin flip to our number, in the order our model adds them.
- An even game50%Every game starts as a coin flip.
- Home field+151%Playing at home is worth about 1.7 points to the 49ers.
- See how far every step moved our number.
- Our number49ers 80%
The full matchup
What if he's out?
PremiumSwitch a player off and we rerun the game without him.
49ers win chance
80%
Raiders 20%49ers 80%
- Starting QBQB · Raiders
- Starting QBQB · 49ers
In our model a starting quarterback out costs his team 3 points.
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Our method
- We simulate the final margin 40,000 times from our team ratings (margin-aware Elo, fitted on nflverse 2015–2025) and the injury report.
- The win chance is the share of those simulations each team wins.
- When the market has a price (Polymarket), it gets 85% of the say and our ratings the rest: over the last ten seasons that mix picked 66.8% of games right, more than either alone.
- Model nfl-v1.2.0, updated Nov 3.
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