U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Alabama's 1st District
Jerry Lee Carl Jr. win chance
99%
Typical margin: Carl by 17
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jerry Lee Carl Jr.
Raised $1.2M · $367K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Clyde W Jones Jr.
Raised $86K · $28K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Jerry Lee Carl Jr.. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $199K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Clyde W Jones Jr. had raised $86KFEC filing
- Jul 22Jerry Lee Carl Jr. had raised $1.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.2 and R+4.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›