U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Alabama's 2nd District
Shomari C. Figures win chance
53%
Typical margin: Figures by 0.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Shomari C. Figures
Raised $1.4M · $663K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Rhett Marques
Raised $1.3M · $188K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $521K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Rhett Marques had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Jul 22Shomari C. Figures had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+11.7 and D+12.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›